A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
